QUICK LINKS
Philadelphia8-276ersTT 124.0–
3:30 PM ETUnited Center
Chicago1-7BullsTT 114.5–
Los Angeles8-2LakersTT 108.0–
6:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena
Detroit6-2PistonsTT 112.5–
Utah1-8JazzTT 106.5–
7:00 PM ETTarget Center💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · MIN 40% TO WIN BY 20+ · MIN -11.5 💸 EARLY PAYOUT POTENTIAL · MIN 53% TO LEAD BY 20+
Minnesota7-3TimberwolvesTT 118.0–
Brooklyn2-7 B2BNetsTT 106.0–
7:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center
Dallas5-4MavericksTT 115.5–
Boston7-2CelticsTT 117.0–
8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · BOS 46% TO WIN BY 20+ · BOS -12.5 💸 EARLY PAYOUT POTENTIAL · BOS 60% TO LEAD BY 20+
Milwaukee1-8BucksTT 104.5–
New Orleans4-5PelicansTT 115.0–
9:00 PM ETIntuit Dome
LA1-7ClippersTT 113.5–
Miami3-6HeatTT 123.5–
9:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · MIA 37% TO WIN BY 20+ · MIA -8.5 💸 EARLY PAYOUT POTENTIAL · MIA 51% TO LEAD BY 20+
Sacramento1-8KingsTT 115.0–
⭐ Projected Winners (6)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
Rating basis: "Rated without" names the injured players already excluded from that team's sim rating. "Rating pending" means a player was just ruled out and the re-sim has not landed yet.
BOS ★★★BOS @ MIL · 8:00 PM ETmarket 85%; model 85%
85%win prob
MIN ★★UTA @ MIN · 7:00 PM ETRated without: Edwards, DiVincenzomarket 82%; model 81%
82%win prob
MIA ★★MIA @ SAC · 9:00 PM ETmodel 80%; market 74%
77%win prob
PHI ★★PHI @ CHI · 3:30 PM ETRated without: Barlow, Bona, Hukportimarket 77%; model 75%
76%win prob
DAL ★BKN @ DAL · 7:30 PM ETRated without: Lively, Larrea, Biberovicmarket 78%; model 63%; BKN on back-to-back
73%win prob
DET —LAL @ DET · 6:00 PM ETRated without: Duren, Joemarket 62%; model 57%
60%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. o1 3PM BOS @ MIL
Soft vs SF all season (#28) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 9 of 10
Over in 9 of the last 10 games
2
Tyrese Maxey o2.5 3PM PHI @ CHI
Soft vs PG all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
3
Jaylen Brown o1.5 3PM PHI @ CHI
Soft vs SF all season (#29) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 7 of 10
Over in 7 of the last 10 games
4
Jaxson Hayes o0 3PM UTA @ MIN
Soft vs C all season (#26) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 10 of 10
Over in 10 of the last 10 games
5
Zach LaVine o2.5 3PM MIA @ SAC
Soft vs SG all season (#30) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 4 of 10
Over in 4 of the last 10 games
6
Max Christie o2.5 3PM BKN @ DAL
Soft vs SG all season (#28) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 4 of 10
Over in 4 of the last 10 games
7
Jaylen Brown o21.5 PTS PHI @ CHI
Soft vs SF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · 22.3 FGA L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
8
Jaylen Brown o6.5 REB PHI @ CHI
Soft vs SF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Joel Embiid PTS - rest/injury risk (RotoWire)
⏳ Dean Wade AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Dominick Barlow AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Anfernee Simons AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Caleb Love AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
+94 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Ryan Rollins o9.5 PTS MIL vs BOS
5/5Last 5
Jaylen Brown o21.5 PTS PHI vs CHI
5/5Last 5
Bobby Portis o8.5 PTS MIA vs SAC
5/5Last 5
WC
Walter Clayton Jr. o8.5 PTS DAL vs BKN
5/5Last 5
Matas Buzelis o4.5 REB CHI vs PHI
5/5Last 5
Joel Embiid o0.5 3PM PHI vs CHI
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 65-40 · 62%＋
65-40 graded62% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
7-3 70%
70 to 79%
31-19 62%
60 to 69%
23-16 59%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Over 17.5 PTS | 70.6% | 23 | Hit |
| Aday Mara | Over 7.5 PTS | 70.2% | 18 | Hit |
| Khaman Maluach | Over 5.5 PTS | 68.4% | 8 | Hit |
| Alex Sarr | Over 11.5 PTS | 62.9% | 15 | Hit |
| DeMar DeRozan | Under 2.5 REB | 62.6% | 1 | Hit |
| DeMar DeRozan | Under 12.5 PTS | 62.6% | 11 | Hit |
| James Harden | Over 16.5 PTS | 62.6% | 7 | Miss |
| Jaylen Brown | Over 19.5 PTS | 73.8% | 20 | Hit |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.